pre-convention prep mode. go gop
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
GALLUP: It's official...no bounce from Biden
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109834/Gallup-Daily-Bounce-Obama-Post-Biden-Tracking.aspx
PRINCETON, NJ -- It's official: Barack Obama has received no bounce in voter support out of his selection of Sen. Joe Biden to be his vice presidential running mate.
Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 23-25, the first three-day period falling entirely after Obama's Saturday morning vice presidential announcement, shows 46% of national registered voters backing John McCain and 44% supporting Obama, not appreciably different from the previous week's standing for both candidates. This is the first time since Obama clinched the nomination in early June, though, that McCain has held any kind of advantage over Obama in Gallup Poll Daily tracking.
The race for president has been virtually tied since mid-August. In this period, Obama's support from national registered voters has consistently ranged from 44% to 46%. The 46% currently supporting McCain is technically his best showing since late May/early June, but is not a statistically significant improvement over his recent range from 43% to 45%. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)
An analysis of historical election poll trends by Gallup Poll Managing Editor Jeff Jones shows that recent presidential campaigns have enjoyed a small (though short-lived) bounce from the running mate announcement. This includes a four percentage point bounce for John Kerry in 2004 after selecting John Edwards, a 5-point bounce for Al Gore in 2000 with his announcement of Joe Lieberman, and a 3-point bounce for George W. Bush in 2000 upon choosing Dick Cheney. Bob Dole received an extraordinary 9-point bounce in 1996 after bringing Jack Kemp onto his ticket.
All of these bounces occurred before the respective party's convention began, and in most cases the candidates received an additional boost in the polls upon completion of the convention. Thus, any increase in Obama's support in the coming days would seem to be more the result of the star-studded and well publicized Democratic national convention than the apparently lackluster Biden selection.
The official Gallup records will show that support for Obama declined by two percentage points in Gallup Poll Daily tracking (from 46% to 44%) conducted immediately before and after the Aug. 23 Biden announcement. (Because the announcement was made at 3 a.m. on Saturday, Aug. 23, all Gallup interviewing conducted that day can be considered post announcement.)
Today's Gallup Poll Daily tracking result includes interviewing on the first night of the Democratic National Convention (Aug. 25). However, much of this interviewing, particularly in the East and Midwest, was conducted before the prime time convention speeches by Sen. Ted Kennedy and Michelle Obama. The Gallup Poll Daily tracking results reported tomorrow may start to indicate whether voters are impressed enough by what they are seeing at the convention to give Obama the bounce that typically occurs as a result of a party's convention. -- Lydia Saad
Click here to see how the race currently breaks down by demographic subgroup.
Survey Methods
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The general-election results are based on combined data from Aug. 23-25, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,684 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
To provide feedback or suggestions about how to improve Gallup.com, please e-mail feedback@gallup.com.
Monday, August 25, 2008
Thursday, August 21, 2008
From: http://washingtontimes.com/news/2008/aug/21/mccain-erases-obamas-edge-with-swing-voters/print/
McCain erases Obama's edge with swing voters
David R. Sands (Contact)
Sen. John McCain is having a very good summer, as a trio of new polls show the Republican presidential candidate pulling even with or slightly ahead of rival Sen. Barack Obama and erasing what had been the Democrat's clear edge on appealing to swing voters and dealing with the economy.
Among the more striking findings: Independent voters, who clearly preferred the Democrat in previous surveys, now favor Mr. McCain by a 45 percent to 35 percent margin, according to the bipartisan George Washington University/Battleground 2008 poll published Wednesday. The Republican candidate is in a statistical tie with Mr. Obama on what was supposed to be a Democratic strong suit: dealing with the economy.
"The last three months, John McCain has really taken his case to the people and has made some pretty good gains against Obama," said Republican pollster Brian Nienaber of the Tarrance Group, which helps compile the Battleground survey.
"The myth that Obama was just going to ascend to the presidency in a cloud of grace, adulation and oratory is proving to be just that - a myth," he said.
Mr. Nienaber and veteran Democratic pollster Celinda Lake on Wednesday released the latest Battleground poll showing Mr. McCain with a 47 percent to 46 percent lead among likely voters, although that one-point gap is statistically insignificant since the poll's error margin is 3.1 percentage points.
In a separate poll conducted by the Reuters news agency and pollster John Zogby, Mr. McCain reversed a seven-point deficit in July to take a 46 percent to 41 percent lead over Mr. Obama among likely voters.
Mr. McCain's edge on the economy is even more striking in the Reuters/Zogby poll, turning a four-point deficit in July into a 49 percent to 40 percent lead when voters were asked which candidate could better manage the economy.
In the Zogby poll, Mr. McCain was favored by 83 percent of Republican voters while Mr. Obama was backed by just 74 percent of Democratic voters.
Mr. Zogby attributed Mr. Obama's slide to the spate of attack ads he weathered while vacationing in Hawaii, to criticism that he flip-flopped on issues such as offshore oil drilling and to concerns about his readiness after he appeared soft in his response to the Russian invasion of Georgia.
"He's on the ropes," the pollster said. "He can't win with 74 percent of Democrats."
The news was slightly better for Mr. Obama in the third voter survey, conducted by Bloomberg News and the Los Angeles Times.
The Illinois Democrat barely edged out Mr. McCain of Arizona, 42 percent to 41 percent, among registered voters and scored better than in the two other polls on his handling of the economy and the problem of rising fuel prices.
But Los Angeles Times pollster Susan Pinkus said it is striking how well the Republican nominee is running against a political and economic backdrop that both parties say should favor Democrats.
"With the economy doing so poorly and the unpopularity of the war in Iraq, Obama should be further ahead," she said.
Mrs. Lake, the Democratic pollster, said Wednesday that Mr. McCain's summer had been productive and that Republicans were largely driving the debate over offshore drilling and fuel prices.
Although the Battleground poll found that more voters think Mr. McCain is running a negative campaign, she said, some of the attack themes against Mr. Obama were working.
She argued, however, that the poll data continue to suggest that Mr. Obama's supporters are more energized than are Mr. McCain's, that the Obama campaign has the potential to alter the traditional political map, and that independents and Democrats are united in their belief that the country is "on the wrong track."
"I think the indicators are very volatile right now and both sides are going to fight very hard" for the independent vote, she said.
Mr. Nienaber noted that the party conventions, the running mates and the presidential debates can alter the dynamics of the race.
He said Mr. McCain's unexpected strength on such core issues as energy prices and the economy is a good sign for Republicans, complementing Mr. McCain's pronounced lead over Mr. Obama on national security issues.
In the Battleground poll, Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama each received 43 percent on the question of which candidate could "keep America prosperous." Mr. Obama led 47 percent to 41 percent when the question was asked in May.
"No Democratic candidate has ever won who didn't enjoy a big lead on that question," Mr. Nienaber said.
S.A. Miller contributed to this report.
McCain erases Obama's edge with swing voters
David R. Sands (Contact)
Sen. John McCain is having a very good summer, as a trio of new polls show the Republican presidential candidate pulling even with or slightly ahead of rival Sen. Barack Obama and erasing what had been the Democrat's clear edge on appealing to swing voters and dealing with the economy.
Among the more striking findings: Independent voters, who clearly preferred the Democrat in previous surveys, now favor Mr. McCain by a 45 percent to 35 percent margin, according to the bipartisan George Washington University/Battleground 2008 poll published Wednesday. The Republican candidate is in a statistical tie with Mr. Obama on what was supposed to be a Democratic strong suit: dealing with the economy.
"The last three months, John McCain has really taken his case to the people and has made some pretty good gains against Obama," said Republican pollster Brian Nienaber of the Tarrance Group, which helps compile the Battleground survey.
"The myth that Obama was just going to ascend to the presidency in a cloud of grace, adulation and oratory is proving to be just that - a myth," he said.
Mr. Nienaber and veteran Democratic pollster Celinda Lake on Wednesday released the latest Battleground poll showing Mr. McCain with a 47 percent to 46 percent lead among likely voters, although that one-point gap is statistically insignificant since the poll's error margin is 3.1 percentage points.
In a separate poll conducted by the Reuters news agency and pollster John Zogby, Mr. McCain reversed a seven-point deficit in July to take a 46 percent to 41 percent lead over Mr. Obama among likely voters.
Mr. McCain's edge on the economy is even more striking in the Reuters/Zogby poll, turning a four-point deficit in July into a 49 percent to 40 percent lead when voters were asked which candidate could better manage the economy.
In the Zogby poll, Mr. McCain was favored by 83 percent of Republican voters while Mr. Obama was backed by just 74 percent of Democratic voters.
Mr. Zogby attributed Mr. Obama's slide to the spate of attack ads he weathered while vacationing in Hawaii, to criticism that he flip-flopped on issues such as offshore oil drilling and to concerns about his readiness after he appeared soft in his response to the Russian invasion of Georgia.
"He's on the ropes," the pollster said. "He can't win with 74 percent of Democrats."
The news was slightly better for Mr. Obama in the third voter survey, conducted by Bloomberg News and the Los Angeles Times.
The Illinois Democrat barely edged out Mr. McCain of Arizona, 42 percent to 41 percent, among registered voters and scored better than in the two other polls on his handling of the economy and the problem of rising fuel prices.
But Los Angeles Times pollster Susan Pinkus said it is striking how well the Republican nominee is running against a political and economic backdrop that both parties say should favor Democrats.
"With the economy doing so poorly and the unpopularity of the war in Iraq, Obama should be further ahead," she said.
Mrs. Lake, the Democratic pollster, said Wednesday that Mr. McCain's summer had been productive and that Republicans were largely driving the debate over offshore drilling and fuel prices.
Although the Battleground poll found that more voters think Mr. McCain is running a negative campaign, she said, some of the attack themes against Mr. Obama were working.
She argued, however, that the poll data continue to suggest that Mr. Obama's supporters are more energized than are Mr. McCain's, that the Obama campaign has the potential to alter the traditional political map, and that independents and Democrats are united in their belief that the country is "on the wrong track."
"I think the indicators are very volatile right now and both sides are going to fight very hard" for the independent vote, she said.
Mr. Nienaber noted that the party conventions, the running mates and the presidential debates can alter the dynamics of the race.
He said Mr. McCain's unexpected strength on such core issues as energy prices and the economy is a good sign for Republicans, complementing Mr. McCain's pronounced lead over Mr. Obama on national security issues.
In the Battleground poll, Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama each received 43 percent on the question of which candidate could "keep America prosperous." Mr. Obama led 47 percent to 41 percent when the question was asked in May.
"No Democratic candidate has ever won who didn't enjoy a big lead on that question," Mr. Nienaber said.
S.A. Miller contributed to this report.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
A Blessing; and A Curse
First, the Blessing.
We found out two days ago that because of some changes happening with my work at the beginning of September, my position with "the company" would be dissolved.
Doesn't sound much like a blessing, right? Despite the "dissolution," I, however, would retain a paycheck as a "consultant." But, we lose our insurance and have to calculate our taxes since they wouldn't be taken out...
Having 15 days to find new insurance seemed rather daunting. But we figured we'd start to look.
In the meantime, JEE has been waiting to hear about her employment- she got a great job...on a temp-to-maybe-hire basis. Short story is they thought she was amazing ('cuz she is!), and they offered her the permanent position today.
Blessing!
She'll make good money, and get benefits. Difficulty solved.
The Curse...
Been catching up with some friends from the OPM days. Apparently about half my companions have had challenges getting from ring to altar ... Hopefully it's not a lingering ailment of time spent as my roommate ...
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
We found out two days ago that because of some changes happening with my work at the beginning of September, my position with "the company" would be dissolved.
Doesn't sound much like a blessing, right? Despite the "dissolution," I, however, would retain a paycheck as a "consultant." But, we lose our insurance and have to calculate our taxes since they wouldn't be taken out...
Having 15 days to find new insurance seemed rather daunting. But we figured we'd start to look.
In the meantime, JEE has been waiting to hear about her employment- she got a great job...on a temp-to-maybe-hire basis. Short story is they thought she was amazing ('cuz she is!), and they offered her the permanent position today.
Blessing!
She'll make good money, and get benefits. Difficulty solved.
The Curse...
Been catching up with some friends from the OPM days. Apparently about half my companions have had challenges getting from ring to altar ... Hopefully it's not a lingering ailment of time spent as my roommate ...
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Friday, August 8, 2008
Monday, August 4, 2008
Energy and the Election
McCain Team -
Americans across the country are feeling the effects of high gas prices and our need to expand domestic oil production.
John McCain says we need offshore oil drilling and we need it now. Senator Barack Obama has consistently opposed offshore drilling - calling it a "gimmick." Senator Obama's solution to high gas prices is telling Americans to make sure their tires are inflated.
Today, I'm asking for your help in putting Senator Obama's "tire gauge" energy policy to the test. With an immediate donation of $25 or more, we will send you an "Obama Energy Plan" tire pressure gauge. Will simply inflating your tires reduce the financial burden of high gas prices on your wallet?
It's clear Senator Obama has no plan to address the energy challenges we face as a nation. He has said no to offshore drilling, no to expanding domestic drilling and no to nuclear energy. He has no plan to reduce our dependence on foreign oil.
John McCain is prepared to lead our country as president to break our dependence on foreign oil with real solutions. John McCain believes we should lift the federal ban on offshore drilling, enabling you to decide where we drill for oil.
But John McCain won't be able to enact these policies without your help in electing him as our next president.
Please help us put Senator Obama's energy plan to the test - donate $25 or more for your very own "Obama Energy Plan" tire pressure gauge.
Thanks, as always, for your support.
Sincerely,
Rick Davis
Campaign Manager
P.S. Our next president's energy policy will need to reduce our dependency on foreign oil. John McCain believes we need offshore drilling now. Senator Obama's plan is calling on Americans to check their tire pressure. We're asking for your help in testing out Senator Obama's energy plan. With your donation of $25 or more right now, we'll send you a tire gauge to test for yourself, Senator Obama's "tire gauge" energy policy.
Americans across the country are feeling the effects of high gas prices and our need to expand domestic oil production.
John McCain says we need offshore oil drilling and we need it now. Senator Barack Obama has consistently opposed offshore drilling - calling it a "gimmick." Senator Obama's solution to high gas prices is telling Americans to make sure their tires are inflated.
Today, I'm asking for your help in putting Senator Obama's "tire gauge" energy policy to the test. With an immediate donation of $25 or more, we will send you an "Obama Energy Plan" tire pressure gauge. Will simply inflating your tires reduce the financial burden of high gas prices on your wallet?
It's clear Senator Obama has no plan to address the energy challenges we face as a nation. He has said no to offshore drilling, no to expanding domestic drilling and no to nuclear energy. He has no plan to reduce our dependence on foreign oil.
John McCain is prepared to lead our country as president to break our dependence on foreign oil with real solutions. John McCain believes we should lift the federal ban on offshore drilling, enabling you to decide where we drill for oil.
But John McCain won't be able to enact these policies without your help in electing him as our next president.
Please help us put Senator Obama's energy plan to the test - donate $25 or more for your very own "Obama Energy Plan" tire pressure gauge.
Thanks, as always, for your support.
Sincerely,
Rick Davis
Campaign Manager
P.S. Our next president's energy policy will need to reduce our dependency on foreign oil. John McCain believes we need offshore drilling now. Senator Obama's plan is calling on Americans to check their tire pressure. We're asking for your help in testing out Senator Obama's energy plan. With your donation of $25 or more right now, we'll send you a tire gauge to test for yourself, Senator Obama's "tire gauge" energy policy.
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