Needy in Nevada

Having worked on the fundraising side of political campaigns, I've seen the importance of good lists. Lists of key supporters and donors, lists of potential donors, lists for the direct mail shop to send solicitations, etc. Once you're on a list, it's pretty hard to get off, and good lists are valuable. Campaign finance reform and other legislation makes the information about individual donors (who give more than $200/cycle) public. Between tapping public records information, or possibly being granted access to other candidate's lists, you can supplement what you already have. Needless to say, we've gotten letters from a variety of candidates, some of whom we've never given to nor signed up to support (but they got my name from somewhere...).

All that is to say, I received a letter today. A direct mail piece urging my quick action to help defeat Senator Harry Reid. To be honest, usually I just toss these right in the trash, but I hadn't received one from this candidate before so I thought I'd give it a read.

Now, I know direct mail pieces are always "urgent" and that I must "act now" to avert some disaster or help make sure the quarter ends with good fundraising numbers. And maybe I've ignored the text of past letters, but this one seemed particularly needy. Here's how it goes:

Dear [name],
If you're the Republican I've been told you are, then I need you to find your checkbook right now.

Translation: I got your name from someone else's list and I'm trying to get you to contribute via this piece of snail mail.

The letter continues [the bold is mine, the underlines and italics are from the letter]

... And I need your immediate financial support!
[...]
I need an emergency donation from you for ....
[...]
But I need your help immediately.
[...]
What I need are 1 million patriotic Americans who love this great country enought to give $25 to give Harry Reid the boot. I pray that you are one of them.

Oh, and don't forget the "sticky note" affixed to the front of the letter, printed in "handwriting" font:

I need your help to defeat Harry Reid.

I wonder if anyone has done a study of word usage in campaign fundraising direct mail solicitations. (1) Is there some science behind the number of "I needs" a letter should contain for maximum results? (2) Do political parties differ in their solicitation language (e.g., "I need" versus "Please show your support")? (3) Do people really believe the letters are as urgent as they claim to be?

And on a similar vein, (1) is direct mail fundraising effective in today's economy and/or digital age (i.e., is response suffering because most Americans have less disposable income, or is the barrier to donation [check or filling out a form with credit card information] prohibitive?), and (2) isn't the political fundraising "scene" about due a disruptive innovation of some sort?

</end random rant>

Just a year ago

I'm a little late in this post, but what's a few days, a few dollars, a few votes....

The Upside: THIS YEAR: Republican gubernatorial candidate, Bob McDonnell, won the other evening -- as Virginia shifts back into the red (that's a good thing in politics, bad thing in balance sheets). Republican candidates for Lt. Gov and Attorney General also won.

The Flipside: LAST YEAR: After spending the end of 2007 and most of 2008 working 70-80 hours a week, and spending a few weeks in the battleground state of Colorado organizing Get-Out-the-Vote (GOTV) efforts -- my work became mostly for naught as then-Senator Obama won the 2008 Presidential election.

One day I'll actually have to write up this experience. In short, it was the greatest, most fun, hardest, and wildest roller coaster of a job. I made a lot of great friends -- from fellow staffers to donors to volunteers to fundraisers -- and have lots of great memories.

Since I'm not about to start my novel about my participation in the 2008 election cycle tonight, I'll leave you with some random photos that I found from circa Election Day 2008.

The title of this post and of the Picasa album come from a song my great-grandpa used to sing a song that went something like this:

I remember, last December
Just a year ago -
I went to see a show...

I can't believe it's now more than a year since the walls came a'tumblin' down. Some things haven't changed -- I still had a Halloween, complete with a witch telling a story about a broomstick.

Long live Team Surge!

I voted

Elections 2009

NPP

[[UPDATE: I've posted here some of the Facebook discussions I found humorous from the other day. Feel free to add any comments to the original thread on the document, or start a new one!]]

Dalai Lama

October 6, 2009
Front page of the " express " (a free publication of The Washington Post):

Dalai Lama in D.C. Amid White House Flap
[[Large photo, ~60% of front page]]
Caption: WELCOMED GUEST: The Dalai Lama greets spectators outside the Park Hyatt in Georgetown on Monday. The White House postponed a meeting with Tibet's spiritual leader in an apparent nod to China. It's the first time since 1991 that the Dalai Lama will not visit the White House while in Washington.

==Commentary==
At this time, I have nothing really serious to say on this matter. I'm not really sure what to think.

But, the President can add "Meet with the Dalai Lama" to the list of things he * hasn't * done (see SNL for a more complete list...).

Jeremy L. Erb
Sent from my mobile device

Funny Lady

An excerpt from the NightWatch for 23 July 2009, with links added for your enrichment:

North Korea-US: In Thailand for a meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum, Secretary of State Clinton said today North Korea has "no friends left" to protect it from U.N. penalties, The Associated Press reported.

Clinton said the Obama administration would soon send Philip Goldberg, its coordinator for implementing the U.N. Security Council sanctions, back to Asia for a new round of consultations on a joint enforcement strategy. Clinton also said the administration intends to appoint a special envoy to focus on North Korean human rights.

North Korea’s view: The head of the North Korean delegation said North Korea would not return to six-party talks with the United States, Japan, South Korea, China and Russia about its nuclear weapons program because of the "deep-rooted anti-North Korean policy" of the United States.

He also responded to Clinton's remarks earlier in the week when she likened North Korea's recent spate of missile launches to an unruly child demanding attention.

The North Korean Foreign Ministry issued a statement that said her remarks "suggest she is by no means intelligent. … We cannot but regard Mrs. Clinton as a funny lady as she likes to utter such rhetoric, unaware of the elementary etiquette in the international community. Sometimes she looks like a primary schoolgirl and sometimes a pensioner going shopping. It is our view that she can make even a little contribution to the implementation of the U.S. administration's foreign policy as Secretary of State only when she has understanding of the world, to begin with."

[...]

Comment: The level of exchange today devolved into name calling and farce. Farcical exchanges between powerful countries do not seem conducive to peace. No US diplomat of any rank should ever insult a country with whom the US is at war; which has a million-man standing army that has prepared for war for more than 50 years; and has demonstrated at least a vestigial nuclear weapons capability, unless the US is baiting that country into a war.

The good news is that the North did not vilify or demonize “Mrs. Clinton”, as they called her instead of Secretary Clinton. It is a significant insult that shows the North Korea does not take Secretary Clinton seriously as a power player in policy formation. However, it does not portend escalation. On the other hand, she and her staff no longer have credibility in any future negotiations with North Korea.

Well, the Secretary of State is losing face with a country that we'd really like to keep an eye on (and keep in line), and so we're going to send a former US ambassador who was expelled** from Bolivia -- I'm sure his fluent Spanish, experience dealing with Columbians, South Africans, and Bolivians, and his upbringingin in Boston, have prepared him to deal effectively with the North Koreans.

**I don't know the story behind this, maybe I'm reading too much into it. Can anyone fill me in?

Weekend Reads: 07/25/2009

Wow... where to begin. My list of "things I found that I want to blog about but don't have time to do so right now" keeps growing larger. And, unfortunately, the time delay weakens some of the relevancy of the material I discovered. But, I'll try to catch up a little bit here today, so we'll see how that goes.

I'm realizing that my "politics" blog (1) has been dwindling rapidly over the past few months, and (2) the content has been sporadic: stuff about the ODNI, fodder for TOTUS, our trip to Andrews AFB, Memorial Day, and RNC videos. I'd apologize for the randomness, but i you were put off by it all I imagine you're not reading this anymore anyway... Just know I'll be trying to be a little more focused; but no promises.

Here are a few things I thought you should know about:

CONTENTS

• Afghanistan
• Canada
• Interrogation Methods
• Iran
• Judicial News
• Lebanon
• Polls
• Random
• Somali Pirates
• Swine Flu

Afghanistan
I follow a great nightly news review and analysis compiled by someone who used to be "in the know" and is now retired. He writes NightWatch, a (usually) daily review of events around the globe, drawn from open source material, and intermixed with his observations from years of experience. He wrote the following for the night of 17 May 2009, following reports of several US air strikes in Afghanistan.

US air strikes on 4 May killed 140 villagers, an Afghan government investigation concluded on Saturday, putting Kabul at odds with the US military's account. The official death toll, announced by the Defense Ministry, made the bombing the deadliest incident for civilians since US forces began fighting the Taliban in 2001, and is likely to worsen anger over the presence of foreign troops.

Readers need to understand that the USAF almost certainly did not kill close to 140 villagers. Strategypage.com posted a valuable summary narrative of how the process works. Any time US or NATO operations result in damage to a village, regardless of any sympathy towards the Taliban, the elders must find a way to make the loss of lives have meaning for the village.

This impulse transcends religion or other considerations. This is a survival instinct. Village elders might actually like US Marines, but will bury goats and vermin to exaggerate the death toll so as to extort money benefits from the US – up to $5,000 per person, and a fortune in a rural village.

The graves cannot be opened in an Islamic country, frustrating any scientific calculation of the deaths. It is the price of fighting the Pashtun uprising in a single engagement.

I did not know about either the practice of the animal burial fraud or the grave non-opening cultural angle. Bring in the ground penetrating radars?

Canada
Apparently, being an essentially neutral state hasn't helped Canada avoid terrorist attacks on its own soil. According to the NightWatch for 5 July 2009:

The Canadian Press reported today, “It’s been nine months since the first explosion targeting EnCana's (TSX:ECA) natural gas operations in northeastern British Columbia. - the start of six attacks the Royal Canadian Mounted Police are now labeling "domestic terrorism."

RCMP are asking for patience as they investigate the two latest explosions in the Dawson Creek area. The bomber apparently is still at large. Investigators have made no progress reports in months.

A blast on Canada Day at a wellhead near the village of Pouce Coupe marked the first attack since January, and crews working to repair that site heard yet another explosion Saturday on a nearby pipeline.

RCMP no doubt will capture the bomber. Nevertheless, the official Canadian admission that Canada has domestic terrorists is worth a mention. Liberal neutrality is no safeguard from terrorist attacks.

Interrogation Methods
[1]If you read the note above for the Afghanistan comments, the same individual wrote the following comments related to the discussion that was going on regarding the suggestion by some to release documents related to the interrogation methods employed by the CIA on individuals detained in the Global War on Terror (GWOT). He opined on 14 May 2009:

Some American leaders have argued for the release of the terrorist-related information obtained from waterboarding and other harsh interrogation techniques. That is a useful and important proposal in a free-speech democracy, provided that the results of other interrogation techniques also are released.
What the US press does not seem to appreciate is that there exists another body of evidence obtained from using friendlier techniques. This condition is confusing because, occasionally, press outlets have reported anecdotal snippets from this other body of evidence that focused on the success of CIA interrogators who befriended Islamist terrorists as an information gathering technique. These techniques also provided useful information, according to the press accounts and the testimonials of the interrogators who used these techniques.

NightWatch recommends that both bodies of evidence should be compiled, declassified and released to the public, if either is released, and let a full and professional debate on the merits ensue. The results of the evidence on the merits should drive the conclusions about which techniques work best and the policy decisions of national decision-makers.

The key point for Readers is that multiple interrogation techniques apparently were applied, based on press reports, and achieved results worth comparing.

[2]In what seems to be an interesting stance to take (considering the President's rhetoric against Gitmo and the interrogation methods approved of and used in the past), The Washington Post reports that "The Obama administration has objected to a provision in the 2010 defense funding bill currently before the Senate that would bar the military's use of contractors to interrogate detainees." The article also states, "The White House statement said that in 'some limited cases,' contractor skills might be necessary 'to obtain critical information' and that the provision 'could prevent U.S. Forces from conducting lawful interrogations in the most effective manner.'"

I wonder if the Obama Administration sees the irony in their attempts at justifying retaining these contracted interrogation skills to meet hypothetical needs to produce "critical information."

Iran
[1]Earlier this year, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) released an "Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions" in Iran that law (Section 721 of FY 1997 Intelligence Authorization) requires it submit to Congress. The DNI report indicates that Iran is dramatically increasing the amount of low-enriched uranium produced by its nuclear fuel production system. Also, Iran is continuing to develop missiles of increasing range. And it maintains the capability to produce chemical warfare agents "that may have offensive applications". This doesn't sound like good news...
[2]In June 2009, I caught the following post from CQ Politics titled, "Should the CIA Meddle in Iran Now?" Jeff Stein wrote in part:

A half century ago the CIA could bring down an Iranian prime minister with a few rent-a-crowds, well placed payments to key generals and a pliable replacement.

Could it do the same today?

Not likely, but events in Iran have often contradicted the prognostications of Westerners, especially at the CIA.

This year's protests in Iran following the election, the almost-crazed use of Twitter to follow the events, and the clashes that still occur are watched with great interest.

Judicial News
[1]According to a Heritage Foundation "Morning Bell" email, "Despite being the first president in U.S. history to have voted to filibuster a Supreme Court nominee, President Obama hoped Saturday, 'that we can avoid the political posturing and ideological brinksmanship that has bogged down this [Supreme Court nomination] process, and Congress, in the past.'"
[2]I wrote back in April about the nomination of transnationalist Harold Koh to be the chief legal advisor to the Department of State. Apparently, no one in the Senate read my thoughts, nor did they heed the warning from the Center for Security Policy when they wrote "A Transnationalist Cannot Uphold the Constitution."

Lebanon
A "prophecy" from the Nightwatch for 25 May 2009:

No international news services are reporting on the emergence of Russia as an influence in strategic Middle Eastern events. From Iran to Lebanon, Russia is making progress in building influence by backing a variation of self-determination. Some analysts label this practice “judo diplomacy.’ The impulse for democracy is being used against itself to vote into power authoritarian leaders based on demographics. Lebanon could become an Islamist dominated state in two weeks.

Polls
A Gallup poll found that respondents -- for the first time in Gallup's history -- are slightly more likely to be pro-life than they are to be pro-choice.

Random
[1]Back in May [I told you I've kept stuff in the queue for a while], I wanted to start a daily quote surrounding the Pelosi/CIA "scandal". Obviously, that didn't happen. So, here's a classic quote from this moment in America's history, as reported by The Campaign Spot:

Those CIA officers chosen to brief the Congress, and especially the intelligence committees, are very senior, experienced officers, who well know the reputation and future of the CIA, as well as their own jobs, are on the line should they be perceived as not telling the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Such restrictions, however, do not apply to members of the Congress when they then appear before the public.

[2]Found this picture through a VA GOP blog.
I decided to share it today because (1) check out that concentration!, (2) nice form [I think, I'm not the bowling instructor], (3) check out that wall paper!, (4) do you think they still have some of the same old bowling balls?, and (5) how cool is that to have a bowling alley in your basement?

Pretty cool, apparently.

Although the wallpaper has changed, that little alley is still there in the depths of the White House compound. Last fall, I had the opportunity to go bowling with some friends down there. I can't remember all the pictures that hung along the wall, but perhaps the one above was there. The one below was definitely there, and I took a self-portrait in front of it.

Unfortunately, President Bush wasn't able to join us ... but his picture was there to remind us of how it was done. I noticed similar expressions on the faces of the presidents in those two pictures; however, note the different approaches. I'm sure someone out there could come up with some deep meaning for what it all means.

The teams were West Coast (WC) vs. East Coast (EC). I was on the WC team, by virtue of my heritage (plus, if we considered my year on the east coast as qualifying for that team, the teams wouldn't have been even). WC went one win, one loss that night. As the (honored? haha) guest that night, I was able to keep the official White House Bowling Alley scorecard, documenting our win. I wonder if I should frame it and hang it with my other campaign memorabilia.

Somali Pirates
[1]NightWatch comments on the Somali pirates that attacked a US Navy supply ship with small arms fire. How crazy are these pirates? If there's a supply ship - there's bound to be the warship it's tending close by, right? Pretty sure the Navy would have a little more than small arms fire to return to the pirates...
[2]StategyPage, another blog I like to read (and one referenced by NightWatch in the past), recently shared a photo of "members of a USS Gettysburg visit, board, search and seizure team and a U.S. Coast Guard law enforcement vessel approaching a suspected pirate mothership after responding to a merchant vessel distress signal." Click through for the full-sized image and full caption.


Swine Flu
As of 07/06/2009 the WHO reports 94,512 cases / 429 deaths
As of 06/15/2009 the WHO reports 35,928 cases / 163 deaths
As of 05/13/2009 the WHO reports 5,728 cases / 61 deaths
As of 04/26/2009 the WHO reports 38 cases / 0 deaths]
Visit the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Alert and Response (GAR) Situation Updates for Pandemic (H1N1) 2009.